To Pull or Not to Pull: MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell Runs Clip of Sen. McCain Saying Its Time We Pulled the Trigger on Iran
I just caught the You Tube video of Sen. John McCain saying that it was time to pull the trigger on Iran. From the context, of course, McCain is merely saying that we need to impose strict sanctions on Iran – not that it is time to bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran.
Nevertheless, from the point of view of the U.S. political cycle and the risks we face in Iran, I’m thinking that now is probably a good time for Israel to “pull the trigger.” Among Republicans, I’m pretty sure they will be cheered by the Israeli strike and pleased to see that force is used to put down the Iranians who obviously wish us ill.
In fact, a large majority of us – conservatives and independents – would applaud this action. For example, a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of 900 registered voters on April 6-7, 2010 shows 61% support in response to the question worded: “Do you support or oppose the United States taking military action to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons?”
Among prominent Democrats, however, I think we can safely predict that “pulling the trigger” will not be a popular option. As far as I can tell, liberal Democrats are always against war and it does not matter who the bad guys are or what kind of weapons they have on the launch pad.
Ironically, even foreign wars have a way of dividing us up along partisan lines. Given this context, the natural question would be when is the right time to “pull the trigger?” For example, from the standpoint of U.S. politics, is the time to pull the trigger now, just prior to November, after November, or in the Spring (or later) of 2011?
If Israel pulled the trigger now, I think it is safe to say that this action would energize Republicans and independents, while – at the same time – it would stoke a heated debate about whether or not Israel did the right thing. Such a debate, in my view, would assist Republicans in contrasting themselves with the Democrats who would be busy attacking Israel for making a pre-emptive strike.
Consequently, the debate would provide Republicans with a nationalized public issue that broke in their favor.
Ironically, if Israel waited to “pull the trigger” just prior to November, then it would create a temporary rally-around-the-flag effect for President Obama that might impact the mid-term elections. Obama’s popularity would rise temporarily as he took normal actions to insure that the conflict between Iran and Israel did not escalate into World War III.
Right now, we have a lot of military strength in Afghanistan, right near Iran, so it would be difficult for Russia or China to do much to defend Iran – if that was their objective.
If Israel attacks just prior to the November elections, then it would strengthen the military image of Obama, and – perhaps – give him an excuse — if he wishes to 
temporarily gain support by demonstrating a modest level of allied defense for Israel’s actions. I do not see how Obama could do anything to harm Israel under this timing scenario without making things worse for his Democrat party.
If Israel pulls the trigger right after November, then Obama will have almost total freedom – electorally speaking – to do whatever he wants included issuing a strong attack on Israel and potentially supporting sanctions against Israel as part of a larger effort to distract people from the poor U.S. economy. This would be the best option for Obama because he would build his ties to his base, long before he needed to pretend to be a centrist again in time for the 2012 Presidential election. From the point of view of Israel, this looks like the worst time to pull the trigger to me.
If Israel attacks in the Spring of 2011, the issue will not have too much of a partisan electoral impact within the U.S. Israel would be facing a less conservative Congress, and would still be in the doghouse with President Obama. This analysis would be particularly poignant if, as Defense Secretary Gates suggests, Iran could expedite matters and have a nuke by the Spring of 2011. So, my conclusion is that the sooner Israel pulls the trigger, the better it will be for her in ending an existential threat from Iran and for assisting her true and loyal friends in the United States.
Shortlink:
23 Responses to To Pull or Not to Pull: MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell Runs Clip of Sen. McCain Saying Its Time We Pulled the Trigger on Iran
Leave a Response
Translator
John, I truly believe it is time to deal with Iran, but for Israel to do it alone is frightening. Obama is not a friend of Israel and therefore, I fear that he has ordered his commanders in the Middle East to keep an eye out for outbound Israeli Air Force traffic. Sadly, for Israel and the American people I believe while Obama is President the Arab world has the power of the United States Air Force behind them: I would fear that our Air Force may engage the Israeli Air Force; try to turn them away or warn Iran. It is truly sad, but a necessary consideration for Israel – my apologizes to Israel as an American.
People who call for an attack on Iran are mentally unhinged.
It is also arguable that there are even supporters of Israel, more like Hamas.
None of these arm-chair warriors who advocate constant war talk about the day after.
All those chemical warheads slamming into Israel, along with all those conventional warheads will change the face of Israel forever.
The resulting world economic chaos will ensure that whatever is left of Israel after such an attack, will face that the tiny little destroyed state will be lucky to live like a third world pariah country for generations to come.
The only existential threat to Israel is of its own making. That is its colonialism run wild on and it does not have sovereignty over, the ethnic cleansing, the land and resource theft, the various illegal occupations.
All a self-created existential threat.
Instead of sanctions on Iran, the UN should be putting together a Chapter Seven resolution with teeth to bring Israel under international law or kick the human rights abusing little state right out of the UN.
Interesting – it is exactly that kind of thinking that kept the United States out of WW II an therefore the Jewish ovens running even the longer -
Phil Kammer,
That is simply insane. And historically inaccurate.
On the other hand shooting down IAF aircraft to prevent WWIII is a great idea.
Israel has already caused the world enough trouble with it’s occupations and subjugation of the Palestinians. Those actions are already endangering US troops and interests in the region.
Allowing the rogue state to attack Iran, destroy itself and others in the region, stat WWII and bring economic ruin the the entire planet, nope, that will never be allowed to happen and if it takes shooting down IAF aircraft then fine, I support it 100%.
It’s time Israel is treated like all the other Middle Eastern countries. It’s proved over decades it is no different and does not share US values.
It has nothing to do with religion, US Jews support President Obama and his polices towards Israel, and two-thirds of Israelis support the two-sate solution.
It’s just hard to find them through the din of people like you, arm-chair warriors clamoring for yet more war.
The leaders of Iran hold to an ideology which is hostile to U.S. interests. As an Armenian-American, I understand – better than most – that radical Islam is hostile to Christians and Jews and that its violence pre-dates the establishment of Israel. The last thing we need is to see Iran with a nuke. Almost everyone seems to agree with that. Taking out Iran’s nuke capacity is a fitting way of learning from the example of the Armenian people who allowed their leaders and their people to be mislead by those who “trusted” the intentions of radical Islam.
John Drew,
You scaremongering is indefensible. Iran has the capability to destroy Israel right now if it was so inclined.
Of course unlike the arm-chair warriors always clamoring for yet more war, the Iranian leadership is not insane, nor are they suicidal.
It’s sad that as an Armenian you are calling for the death of tens of thousands of not only innocent Iranians but also tens of thousands throughout the region that will have to bear the brunt of nothing more than a war of choice, mounted by Israel, in an effort to cover up the decades of crimes it has committed against the Palestinians and others in the region.
Frankly it’s worse than sad, it’s appalling.
Thankfully, we have a sane US President who is not so gullible.
It’s always interesting to me to listen to those in favor of Obama’s latest policies towards Israel. They speak of the atrocities committed against the Palestinians and Gazans, but never mention the number of Israeli deaths caused by rockets fired from Hamas and Hezbollah. From 2000 to 2004 alone there 425 attacks on Israel that wounded more than 2,000 and killed nearly 400. at the same rate of causalities per capita that Hamas has achieved in Israel, those 400 Israeli dead in a nation of under six million would be the equivalent of some 19,000 dead American civilians. Can anyone doubt the inexhaustible effort, might, and political will that would have been unleashed on those perpetrators, how every resource of our government would have justly and firmly responded to domestic terrorism with formidable wrath and might? Would we have hesitated to eliminate the leadership of such a horrific enemy, even if its leadership had alleged, divine claims to our land and had ordained that we had no right to exist? The idea that giving up land and ceasing blockades will bring peace is laughable. There is a large populous of Muslims that will never cease until the state of Israel is no more. It’s been stated over and over, but the secular world with its peace initiatives refuses to listen.
The double standard and unquestionable support for our great leader, Obama, is nauseating. Whether or not a strike by the Israelis upon Iranian nuclear installations is rational or just can only be determined by the Israelis. For they will be the ones living in the radical mullah’s firing range should their overly-zealous, radical ideology push them over the edge some day. A majority of Iranians are very sane, but that can’t be said for those in charge.
I’m sure you’ll continue on with your anti-semitic rambling regarding the Israelis, but you should open your mind to the tragedy on both sides.
Lane,
What a lame claim. Every credible peace activist on the planet including myself heartily condemns any terrorist act by any militant. The Goldstone Reports also rightly included Palestinian militant groups in its assessment and found that both Israel and Hamas committed war crimes and possible crimes against humanity.
Every human rights group on the planet including the usual suspects all have routinely condemned terrorism by extremists as well.
So either you live under a rock. Or you have an agenda that is less about truth and reality and more about what you wish it to be.
The thing is, there is a little more expected of a country that claims to be the only democracy in the Middle East, with the most moral army, a “shining beacon” etc – yet the reality that the world can plainly see is quite different.
Lane, calling me antisemitic is silly as I have not even vaguely alluded to anything antisemitic in the least.
You cheapen the word as do so many, and when you use it like that in a government policy argument you render the term meaningless.
Iran is simply not a threat to Israel. Ahmadinejad is indeed pushing all the right buttons in Israel to poke and prod, but the fact is what he says is largely true.
And that’s not just problematic for Israel.
Nope, Israel’s only existential threat is the vile occupations.
I’ve read the Koran. It’s silly to underestimate the hostility it promotes against Christians and Jews. A more powerful Iran is a serious threat to anyone who sincerely loves peace. The Iranian regime is so evil that its own citizens are rebelling against its rule. The U.S. and Israel would be doing Iran a failure by knocking back the power of the Iranian ruling elite. I’ve watched the YouTube videos of the violence the Iranian regime directs against its own people. I can’t imagine how a serious person could think that it was a bad idea to weaken Iran and keep its leaders from getting nukes.
John Drew,
I have found that people who attempt to cherry-pick from a single religious tome to demonize an entire people usually don’t have the strength of character to point out the weaknesses in their own or others religious texts for objective comparisons.
In fact, I thought that was the province of extremist lunatics who commit violent acts.
The people in the shopping malls of Tehran look no different that they would in any other modern city. Attack them and drive them all into Ahmadinejad’s arms.
And this is all based on your biased and cherry-picked hatred of a people because of what you think their religion is about?
Here’s something ironic for you to think about.
American evangelicals have always been great supporters of Israel. Lots of money, staunch and steady, and with one goal in mind.
To keep Israel strong until their “second coming” and then the Jews around the planet will be expected to kiss Judaism goodbye, and become Christian or spend all eternity burning in hellfire.
I don’t know of a single Muslim that espouses the nonsense you are talking about.
But I can walk down any street in North Carolina and find a Christian that will give me the same description of Judaism’s future that I just gave you above.
I won’t delve into Judaism. But the intellectually honest have, and I am quite sure you are already well aware that neither Christianity nor Islam have a lock on problematic theology.
You ought to read Dore Gold’s book, Hatred’s Kingdom, to get a better understanding of the association between the radical Islamic faith and genocide towards non-believers. Given the violence brought against my Armenian relatives, along with recent attacks on the U.S., I know that you are naive to think that an Iranian regime with nukes is a good idea or that simply eliminating Israel would protect folks like me and my relatives from Islamic radical attacks. Ideally, the people in Iran need to contrast their poverty to the life and prosperity of modern Israel and work harder to understand why their religious beliefs are holding them back from enjoying the good things in life.
John Drew,
You discredit yourself here. I have never stated that Iran with nuclear weapons would be a good thing. Neither have I stated that Israel should not exist. You are just making things up.
This is an example of you simply letting your hatred and your ideology cloud good judgment and proper reading comprehension.
Again, you are wrongly portraying Iran as some backward culture that has no modernity and acting as if Israel is some mightily superior culture.
No one who has ever watched Al Jazeera English for longer than a week or so would know you are just blowing smoke about things you don’t know much about. Neither would anyone who has actually been to the region, talked with Iranians, and gained a better understanding of what the real issues are.
I’m well aware of Dore Gold, his writings and his opinions, they’re worth about as much as Elliot Abrams or Alan Dershowitz (Hi Dersh’s assistant!) – highly partisan and slightly unhinged.
Now Tom Segev, there’s some objective balance.
There’s this real problem with the United States’ rock solid support of Israel being seen as a double standard because all other countries in the Middle East are held to one standard, and Israel gets a free pass for ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity, and yes, illegally transferring a half a million of ones civilians population into an occupied territory with a military force to control the “natives” is a crime against humanity.
It’s flat out land and resource theft. There’s no other description for it and this makes the Arab and Persian grievances with America’s Client State Israel a very real problem for US National Security.
They are very real grievances, very real human rights violations that the US is in part responsible for because of our rock solid support indicating that Israel can do no wrong.
Thankfully, with President Obama, that double-standard is now coming to an end and a new even-handed approach to the Middle East is being adopted.
And not a moment too soon.
But voters in the United States, like myself, are prepared to return control of Congress back to Republicans in November. This will help prevent Obama from doing any further damage to our alliance with Israel.
Lane,
Perhaps you have not kept up with the news?
President Obama does not give a whit about the mid-terms.
You folks misjudged this President. Barack Obama is going for a final full and fair peace settlement between the Palestinians and the Israelis and that will also mean Syria and Lebanon. He got his signature health care bill when Bill Clinton could not.
He does not care about reelection, he cares about getting the job done.
That attention to detail alone will likely not make the fall elections the cakewalk that you think they will be. And those cranky tea party nuts are going to throw a wrench in a bunch of races as well.
President Obama is shepherding the economy and foreign policy through one of the toughest times in out history, and he is doing it well.
My wife and I proudly voted for him in 2008, and we will again when he is reelected.
By any normal measure of development, Iran is clearly a “backward culture” and Israel is far superior.
The problem is that radical Islamic ideology is so dysfunctional that it holds back normal economic development, it harms educational advance, and it produces a bizarre foreign policy which has left Iran isolated from even the folks who might otherwise be its friends. The cruel treatment of Iranian students during the Green Revolutions demonstrates that Iran is not worthy of our respect and certainly should not be protected when it contemplates violence against its neighbors. Israel won its current territory fair and square by defeating its enemies. Obama and his Democrat party allies are making a severe mistake by placing the interests of Iran over the interests of Israel.